The Storm Prediction Center has issued tornado and severe thunderstorm watch alerts for specific U.S. states and has provided details on what each location can expect.
According to the outlook shared on March 3, 2025, thunderstorms were expected to erupt across portions of the southern and central Plains during the evening. This is set to increase in strength.
The threat stems from a mid-level short-wave troughing disturbance moving out of the Four Corners region, which was set to track eastward into the central and southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front advancing across the High Plains collides with a warm and moisture-rich air mass, creating the perfect environment for storm development.
There, meteorologists are observing mixed-layer CAPE values around 1000 J/kg—a critical indicator of how much energy is available to fuel severe storms.
Initially, storms that formed on the evening of March 3 were expected to be slightly elevated, meaning large hail would likely be the first hazard to emerge. However, as the front continues its eastward march, storms are forecast to evolve into a more organized line, feeding off the increasingly unstable warm sector.
This process, known as upscale growth, will allow storms to become more surface-based, unlocking a far more dangerous combination of damaging winds and embedded tornadoes.
The broader Marginal Risk zone reaches even farther, covering parts of Kansas City, Omaha, and Topeka. This indicates that while the most dangerous weather is concentrated further south, strong storms could still develop across the central Plains.
In addition to the broad severe weather outlook issued for the Plains, the SPC has also placed portions of southwest Arkansas, southern and southeast Oklahoma, and central to northeast Texas under an active Tornado Watch.
This watch, which went into effect at 4:10 a.m. CST today (March 4), is set to remain in place until 11:00 a.m. CST. It covers a critical window during which dangerous storms are expected to sweep across the region.
The primary threats associated with this Tornado Watch include the possibility of a few tornadoes, along with scattered damaging winds, some of which could gust up to 75 miles per hour.
Forecasters have also noted the risk of isolated large hail, with hailstones reaching up to 1.5 inches in diameter. Driving the heightened threat is an intensifying squall line, which is racing eastward across the Watch area.
This fast-moving line of storms is expected to maintain its strength as it tracks toward more densely populated areas during the morning hours.
Adding to the concern is the potential for a few storms to form ahead of the main squall line. The Tornado Watch spans approximately 105 statute miles east and west of a line stretching from 20 miles west-northwest of Poteau, Oklahoma, to 25 miles southeast of Waco, Texas.
A Tornado Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for tornado development, meaning tornadoes could form in or near the designated watch area. This is a signal for residents to be prepared—not because a tornado is already occurring, but because the atmosphere has all the right ingredients for dangerous storms capable of producing them.
When a Tornado Watch is in effect, people should use that time to review their emergency plans, make sure they have access to reliable weather alerts, and check their safe room or storm shelter to ensure it’s ready if needed.
Acting early, before a tornado forms, is one of the most effective ways to stay safe. Residents should also take inventory of supplies in case they need to seek shelter quickly.
Tornado Watches are different from Tornado Warnings, where a tornado has been either sighted or indicated by a weather radar. Additionally, a Tornado Emergency is issued when “a violent tornado has touched down in the watch area.”
Social media users have already taken to platforms such as X to show the occurrence of these severe storms. One such post comes from a civilian in North Texas, where a tornado siren went off.
Beyond the severe thunderstorm and tornado watches already in place, the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center has also issued another notice. They have warned of a major winter storm set to impact the Central U.S. through the middle of the week.
This powerful system is expected to bring a wide range of dangerous weather conditions, including blizzard conditions, damaging high winds, and the risk of flash flooding across parts of the Plains, Midwest, and into the Great Lakes region.
The storm is already delivering heavy snowfall to higher elevations of the Central Rockies, where one to two feet of snow could accumulate.
As the system tracks farther east, a swath of four to eight inches of snow combined with intense winds will likely create blizzard conditions across portions of the Central High Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Some locations could see as much as a foot of snow.
Further south, on the warmer side of the storm, a different threat is unfolding across parts of New Mexico, southeast Colorado, southwest Kansas, western Oklahoma, and western Texas. Here, critical to extreme fire weather conditions are expected to develop as strong winds combine with dry air, dramatically increasing the risk of wildfires.
The Prediction Center has highlighted this heightened fire danger in its latest Fire Weather Outlook, urging residents in these areas to remain alert.
Meanwhile, the southern and southeastern flank of the storm will continue to fuel severe weather concerns, particularly across the Red River Valley and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Here, warm, moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico will create a volatile environment for strong to severe thunderstorms.
Heavy rain is also expected to soak parts of the Midwest and the Mid-South, and the Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall, raising concerns for localized flash flooding.
As the storm tracks eastward, the focus will shift toward the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. By then, the primary threats will include damaging winds and the potential for a few tornadoes, though the overall risk level will be slightly lower compared to areas farther west.
At the same time, a new Pacific storm system is forecast to arrive in California by Wednesday, bringing heavy rain to the coast and significant snow to the Sierra Nevada.
This evolving and multi-faceted weather pattern underscores the volatile and rapidly changing conditions affecting much of the country this week.
From blizzards and fire weather to severe storms and flash floods, the central and southern United States are bracing for a high-impact stretch of weather, putting communities on high alert across multiple states.